I expect that the most important event of the short week ahead will be Nvidia’S (NVDA) report–after the market close on Wednesday, May 28–of earnings for the fiscal first quarter of 2026 that ended in April 2025.
Expect volatility. Both in Nvidia’s results and in the market where the numbers are likely to move stocks in the tech sector.
Going into the report even analyst consensus estimates were volatIle with Zacks Investment Research putting the consensus estimate at 80 cents a share. And other calculations putting the consensus at 87 cents a share. Matching the higher consensus would mean year over year earnings growth of 44%.
Revenue is projected at $43.4 billion. That would be 66% growth year over year.
Nvidia almost always beats earnings estimates by a range of 8% to 14% in the last four quarters.
Those growth rates, as impressive as they are, could still strike traders and investors as disappointing. Revenue grew at a 114% rate in fiscal 2025.
The other number in the current quarter likely to attract scrutiny is gross margin. Nvidia has guided to a gross margin for the quarter of 70.6 to 71%. That would be down from 73% in the prior quarter.
But it’s what Nvidia says about future quarters that’s most likely to move the stock and the entire tech sector.
What will Nvidia say about future demand from the buildout of AI infrastructure? There have been some signs of a slowdown in the data center buildout from Microsoft (MSFT) and other data center companies. Has Nvidia seen anysigns of a slowdown?
What’s Nvidia’s take on its growth prospects in the Chinese market given U.S. export restrictions on the most advanced AI chips and the growth of capabilities at China’s domestic AI chip companies?
Is Nvidia’s aggressive product pipeline tracking to schedule? After the initial production problems with the new Blackwell chips, this worry is still alive in investors’ minds.
Stay tuned. The options market is pricing in a 7.4% move, either up or down, on the earnings news.
