Economists surveyed by Bloomberg are expecting the economy to have added 500,000 jobs in September.
Anything way above or way below the number will move expectations on when the Federal Reserve will begin to reduce its monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed assets from the current level of $120 billion a month. That taper is being widely watched as an indicator of when the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates themselves.
Anything way below that 500,000 figure–say 200,000 or 300,000 jobs added in September–would be likely to push back the schedule for taper purchases from the currently anticipated November date. The economy is too weak, the thinking would go, for the Fed to think about removing stimulus in November. That would leave yields on Treasuries pretty much where they are–or maybe move them lower–which would be supportive to stocks.
Anything significantly above that 500,000 level would cement expectations for a November beginning to the taper and would start moving yields on Treasuries higher almost immediately.
Yesterdays private sector jobs report from ADP Research lowered the possibility of a big downside miss. The institute’s report showed that U.S. companies hired 568,000 workers in September, the most since June.
And that report pushed up the odds of a big increase above the median expectation of 500,000. Anna Wong, the chief U.S. economist for Bloomberg Economics, topped the Bloomberg survey of 70 economists with a forecast of 750,000 jobs.
Today, October 7, the yield on the 10-year Treasury moved up 5 basis points to 1.57%.