Walmart (WMT) cut its profit outlook after the market close on Monday, July 25. The company isn’t scheduled to report July quarter earnings until August 16. Walmart shares dropped 9.94% in after-hours trading.
Adjusted earnings per share will fall as much as 13% in the current fiscal year as U.S. shoppers take a pass on big-ticket items and focus on buying groceries (with their lower profit margins.)
This is Walmart’s second warning this year. Two months ago the company said earnings would fall by 1% for the year. That was a cut from February when the company had projected a modest increase n sales.
The timing of Walmart’s warning will certainly focus attention on earnings reports this week from consumer stocks Coca-Cola (KO), McDonald’s (MCD), and Procter & Gamble (PG.)
And the warning comes just two days before the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates by 75 basis points.
Looking at the larger market, Walmart’s warning–and any negative news in this week’s earnings reports from big consumer companies–will likely lead to a re-examination of Wall Street’s belief that stocks of consumer staples companies are a good pick for riding out recession fears. In Monday’s stock market action the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) was up 0.49% while the Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) was down 0.86%.
Walmart’s warning also comes just days before Thursday’s second estimate on U.S. GDP growth in the second quarter. I suspect that investors will see Walmart’s warning as more “relevant” to the current state of the economy than the backward-looking GDP report.
