Visa’s ads remind up that the credit card is everywhere you want to be.
But that’s actually not true when it comes to payments below $10. In the United States 55% of payments below $10 are still in cash.
Visa has targeted that as a huge opportunity for growth in the contactless transaction market and in what it calls the “card not present” category. Converting all those bagel purchases and morning coffee runs into transactions that move from smart phone or digital wallets through Visa’s payments network adds up to real growth. Especially since the trend has been for countries to raise the dollar (or euro or yen or whatever) limit on contactless transactions. In the United Kingdom, for example, contactless limits have climbed to 45 pounds from 30. In Canada the limit has gone to 250 Canadian dollars from 100.
Part of the increase here has been driven by coronavirus pandemic. Public health authorities and merchants–and consumers–have seen increasing the number of contactless transactions as a way to reduce potential exposure to the virus on terminals. The number of face-to-face transactions that are tap-to-pay climbed 40% year over year in the second quarter, Visa has reported. Globally, about 60% of face-to-face transactions are now tap-to-pay. The United States market lags in adoption, but Visa reports a huge surge in the number of merchants asking of signs that promote tap-to-pay.
Before the pandemic Morningstar estimated that net revenue would grow at an 8% compound annual rate for the next five years. I think it’s likely that the coronavirus pandemic will add a couple of percentage points to that growth rate. Morningstar also projects that operating margins (as a percentage of gross revenue) will climb to 56% by fiscal 2024 from 53% in fiscal 2019.
Visa is a member of my Jubak Picks portfolio. The shares are up 215.91% since I added them to the portfolio on November 5, 2014.