There was that little detour for the complete and utter meltdown in the oil market, but now I’m resuming my plan to sell into the “re-opening the economy rally.” That rally is in its last stages I believe, with its life extended by another coronavirus rescue bill, the prospect of yet another major rescue bill (these days a $500 billion package counts as small change), and the possibility of more action from the Federal Reserve to shore up one part of the financial market or another.
Restaurant Brands (QSR), the owner of the Burger King, Tim Horton’s, and Popeye’s brands, was up 6.28% today as of 1 p.m. New York time. It might have further to run if this bounce lasts for a few days more, but I’m going to use this as an exit in the position. The shares are down 30.22% since I added them to my Jubak Picks Portfolio on February 21,2019.
My sell is predicated on a belief that the current moves to re-open the economy in states such as Georgia and Florida are premature. People aren’t ready to go back to “life as usual” without more reassurance (from testing and tracing) that they aren’t at some unspecified danger of infection. I think that is likely to result in stories of “disappointment” that economic growth hasn’t picked up faster and in data showing that the coronavirus case count is creeping back up in these (and other localities).
My next move, if my read of the situation is correct, would be to buy Put Options (maybe in May, maybe in June?) on shares of Restaurant Brands (and other consumer stocks) in anticipation of another leg down in the stock market in early to mid summer.
The company is scheduled to report quarterly earnings on May 4. That adds another element of uncertainty to the stock because we don’t know how optimistic/pessimistic the company will be on guidance for the rest of 2020.