Gold hit a new all-time high yesterday of $2554 an ounce on the Comex for December delivery.
Gold’s 20% or so gain in 2024vto date (as of August 26) is a result of strong central-bank buying plus Asian purchases plus anticipation that the Federal Reserve was about to cut interest rates. Now that Fed chair Jerome Powell has just about promised a cut at the Fed’s September 18 meeting it looks like gold will climb further in 2024 on the fundamentals. Bullish Wall Street targets say $2700 to $3,000 by the end of 2024.
That’s a decent reason to hold gold.
But the very scary geopolitical landscape over the next six months makes me anxious to add more gold even at the record nominal high for the metal. (The inflation adjusted record high for gold in today’s dollars is more than $3,300 per ounce.)
You can fill in the macro risks yourself. We’ve got hot wars in Ukraine and the Middle East that threaten to boil over. And we’ve got a very real possibility of violence here in the United States if one side or the other decides not to accept the election results. (And a hung Congress in February could result in a budget/debt celling crisis.)
I’m going to add more gold to my portfolios tomorrow as a hedge against those risks.
I’ve already got a decent exposure to gold through my ownership of the Van Eck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) up 22.86% from February 1, 2023 in my Perfect 5 ETF Portfolio or up 35.80% since June 21, 2019 in my Volatility Portfolio. And my ownership of Newmont Mining (NEM), UP 9.05% since April 20, 2023 in that same portfolio. Or my position in Barrick Gold (GOLD) in my Jubak Picks Portfolio, up 31.41% since June 21, 2019.
Now, though, I’m going to add not more mining exposure but instead an ETF that holds gold. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) is up 21.37% in 2024 to date and was up 12.69% in 2023.
Today, I’d going to add this ETF to both my Jubak’s Picks Portfolio on this free site and my Volatility Portfolio on my subscription JubakAM.com site. The ETF has a 0.40% expense ratio.
